• - Arm wonders: Will Comey's law replace Moore's Law?

    Arm wonders: Will Comey's law replace Moore's Law?
    26 Days, 23 Hours ago

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    Gordon Moore is one of the founders and retired CEO of Intel. Gordon Moore's observations in the field of ICTs finally became a general rule in 1965 and became known as Moore's Law. According to this law - which still applies in the world of technology - the number of transistors in the chips doubles every two years. However, due to the significant progress of the last decade in the field of chipset manufacturing and the move of semiconductor companies to make chips with 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer lithographs, some experts have raised questions such as "Can this rule be maintained in 1-nanometer and lower lithographs?" , Challenged this law. Arm wonders: Will Comey's law replace Moore's Law?

     Arm wonders: Will Comey's law replace Moore's Law?

    But according to Aitken, Moore's law has reached its last days. Progress has slowed and transistors have become so small that the number of atoms along the gates of a transistor can be said to have reached tens of atoms. When Moore's Law was first formulated, the computer world was a new and exciting field, and few people paid attention to the relationship between climate and the energy consumed by computers, because despite the high consumption of old computers, their number was very small.

    Aitken believes that the relationship between digital deprivation and social deprivation is well understood; Where 3.7 billion people around the world currently do not have full access to digital technology. Bridging this digital divide is necessary and ethical, but it can also pose a new dilemma for the technology industry: How can we mitigate the environmental impact of the 3.7 billion new digital consumers? In other words, how is it possible to connect all people anywhere in the world without accelerating the catastrophically high rate of climate change?

    Koomey's Law

    According to Aitken, the computer world roadmap cannot focus solely on increasing processing power. Extracting maximum performance from a chip - or performance per watt - remains a priority for the computer industry. But the amount of energy consumed over time is another issue that needs to be considered. The ability of data centers to dissipate the thermal energy generated limits these centers to some extent, and servers also face energy constraints. Mobile devices are limited by the energy stored in batteries, and thermal limitations keep their instantaneous power at a certain level. According to Aitken, renewable energy does not currently meet the needs of the computer industry. The sensor in a solar cell is actually connected to the vast sources of energy available, but the problem is that it produces little energy.

    According to Aitken, it is time to replace the law with the Komi law. Moore. Komi Law was invented in 2010 by Stanford University professor Jonathan Koomey. Contrary to Moore's Law - which predicted the processing power of chips - the Kumi law measures the number of calculations performed by the chip per joule of energy consumed. According to observations from 1945 to 2000, the number of such calculations has doubled every 18 months (ie 100 times per decade). But since 2000, its upward trend has slowed and the number of calculations has doubled every 2.6 years (16 times per decade). Arm wonders: Will Comey's law replace Moore's Law? Calculation rate in kilowatt hours per year 1946 to 2009

    According to the Aitken article, the Komi Act is more in line with today's consumer experience, and therefore more need to be relied on in drawing up the technology roadmap. Our digital life includes several devices; Where battery life and performance per watt are more important than mere performance. In other words, in order to achieve the goal of reducing the use of carbon to preserve the planet's materials, the groundwork must be laid for technology such as energy savings and keeping the earth clean above the processing power of chips.

    Perhaps the most interesting conclusion of Aitken in his recent article is that Moore's law and Kumi's law are not laws of nature, but observations in the path of technology, and we can use them to predict the future state of the industry. For example, according to Kumi's law, devices are expected to continue to become less energy-intensive and processors to be low enough to power them from their surroundings.

    Last word

    Despite all this emphasis on the environment and energy, Moore's Law is still in force and will probably be our guest for the next few years. TSMC is set to begin production of 4-nanometer chips this year, and production of 3-nanometer chips will begin in the second half of next year. Both top chipmaking giants - TSMC and Samsung - plan to increase the lithography of their chipsets to 2nm in the not-too-distant future. But experts say that with the introduction of the 1-nanometer lithography industry, the equations will be upset and Moore's Law may lose its validity.

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